{"id":15954,"date":"2023-05-18T16:35:10","date_gmt":"2023-05-18T05:05:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/quantiphy.com.au\/oldbackup\/?p=15954"},"modified":"2023-05-18T16:35:10","modified_gmt":"2023-05-18T05:05:10","slug":"could-australias-unexpected-house-price-recovery-dictate-the-rbas-next-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quantiphy.com.au\/oldbackup\/could-australias-unexpected-house-price-recovery-dictate-the-rbas-next-move\/","title":{"rendered":"Could Australia\u2019s unexpected house price recovery dictate the RBA\u2019s next move?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If you\u2019ve ever used Apple\u2019s weather app, you know that forecasts can be wrong. Looking out the window at a hail storm while a radiant full sun emoji backed by a bright blue sky stares back at you on your screen, you realise that sometimes, even the experts get it wrong.<\/p>\n<p>Such is the case with some of Australia\u2019s top economists in response to the surprising resilience of the housing market, who\u2019ve been forced to revise their forecasts after a second straight month of national house price gains. According to CoreLogic, prices rose 0.6% in March and 0.5% in April.<\/p>\n<p>The most recent revisions come care of Commonwealth Bank, all but erasing their earlier prediction of a 15% fall and replacing it with a 3% gain by end of year, followed by a 5% rise in 2024. With prices falling only 9.1% peak to trough, AMP economist Shane Oliver followed suit, agreeing with a 5% rise in house prices in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>After 11 interest rate hikes, most assumed the market would take much longer to bounce back, using previous cycles\u2014when higher rates have taken a while to flow through to prices\u2014as precedent. In 2009, 2012, and 2019, price recovery didn\u2019t occur until rates started falling, yet with this current cycle, prices began falling as soon as rates began rising. \u201cQuite odd\u201d, as the experts are saying.<\/p>\n<p>As growth data continues to humble economists, the question is, could the unexpected house price recovery dictate the RBA\u2019s next move by pressuring it to keep its monetary policy tighter for longer?<\/p>\n<p>CBA\u2019s most recent forecasts suggest yes, predicting gains could be even higher if 1% worth of rate cuts by the middle of 2024 takes place. But if rate hikes increase and the forecast cuts don\u2019t eventuate, further falls could be on the way.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not just the market numbers that have been off, either. Immigration is up drastically from the 235,000 forecast in last October\u2019s budget, instead likely to hit 400,000 in arrivals by year\u2019s end. The influx of new residents in Australia over the past 18 months is equivalent to demand for 200,000 extra dwellings.<\/p>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_row\" data-structure=\"12\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-12 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_left bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_normal\" data-width=\"12\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_small bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_row_wrapper bt_bb_row_width_boxed_1200\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_row\" data-structure=\"2-4-4-2\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-2 col-sm-4 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_left bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_normal\" data-width=\"2\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-4 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_center bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_double bt_bb_highlight\" data-width=\"4\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_small bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_small bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_text\">\n<h6>Speak To An Expert<\/h6>\n<p>Schedule in a time to discuss your situation with a home loan specialist<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_normal bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_button bto btop bt_bb_icon_position_left bt_bb_color_scheme_14 bt_bb_style_filled bt_bb_width_inline bt_bb_shape_inherit bt_bb_size_normal bt_bb_align_inherit\" data-bt-override-class=\"{&quot;bt_bb_size_&quot;:{&quot;current_class&quot;:&quot;bt_bb_size_normal&quot;,&quot;xl&quot;:&quot;normal&quot;},&quot;bt_bb_align_&quot;:{&quot;current_class&quot;:&quot;bt_bb_align_inherit&quot;,&quot;xl&quot;:&quot;inherit&quot;}}\"><a class=\"bt_bb_link\" title=\"BOOK IN A CALL\" href=\"\/finance\/book-a-chat-with-tommy-biller\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class=\"bt_bb_button_text\">BOOK IN A CALL<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_normal bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-4 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_center bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_double bt_bb_highlight\" data-width=\"4\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-2 col-sm-4 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_center bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_double bt_bb_highlight\" data-width=\"2\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_small bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<p>Of course, immigration isn\u2019t the only factor contributing to the housing supply crisis gripping the country, with eyewatering building costs creating havoc for the construction industry due to fixed price contracts. Residential building costs increased an estimated 29% in Sydney during the two years to March 2023, driven by global supply chain disruptions including the effects of the pandemic. Demand for new homes has never been higher, yet neither has the rate of construction insolvencies\u2014at March end, nearly 16,400 dwellings in NSW were approved but not yet commenced, mostly all in Sydney.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you\u2019ve ever used Apple\u2019s weather app, you know that forecasts can be wrong. Looking out the window at a hail storm while a radiant full sun emoji backed by a bright blue sky stares back at you on your screen, you realise that sometimes, even the experts get it wrong. Such is the case&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":15955,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Could Australia\u2019s unexpected house price recovery dictate the RBA\u2019s next move? - Quantiphy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aus-finance.com.au\/gazette\/could-australias-unexpected-house-price-recovery-dictate-the-rbas-next-move\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Could Australia\u2019s unexpected house price recovery dictate the RBA\u2019s next move? - Quantiphy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"If you\u2019ve ever used Apple\u2019s weather app, you know that forecasts can be wrong. 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