{"id":16274,"date":"2024-06-20T16:22:29","date_gmt":"2024-06-20T04:52:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/quantiphy.com.au\/oldbackup\/?p=16274"},"modified":"2024-06-20T16:25:14","modified_gmt":"2024-06-20T04:55:14","slug":"rate-cuts-pencil-them-in-for-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quantiphy.com.au\/oldbackup\/rate-cuts-pencil-them-in-for-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Rate cuts? Pencil them in for 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Put the party pies on ice and postpone those rate-cut celebrations for a while yet. The much-touted rate cuts we\u2019ve been waiting for may not arrive until 2025. Here\u2019s why rates could be staying higher for longer, and how to take action yourself.<\/p>\n<p>June saw the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keep the cash rate on ice \u2013 yet again.<\/p>\n<p>Rates haven\u2019t budged since November last year, and with the RBA not due to make another rate call until\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/media-releases\/2023\/mr-23-18.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">August<\/a>, interest rates will remain in a holding pattern for at least two more months.<\/p>\n<p>For home owners struggling to manage their home loan at current interest rates, it begs the question: \u2018what happened to all the talk about rate cuts in 2024?\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s what\u2019s happening.<\/p>\n<h3>One reason why rates aren\u2019t moving<\/h3>\n<p>Just a few months ago, some of our biggest banks were predicting interest rates would start to slide sooner rather than later.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.commbankresearch.com.au\/apex\/GmrDocumentViewer?id=068Do00000GBdtC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Commonwealth Bank<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/library.westpaciq.com.au\/content\/dam\/public\/westpaciq\/secure\/economics\/documents\/aus\/2024\/03\/WestpacWeekly20240318.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Westpac<\/a>, for instance, expected rate cuts as early as September.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s now looking increasingly unlikely.<\/p>\n<p>The reason lies with inflation.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/media-releases\/2024\/mr-24-12.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">RBA is intent on getting inflation down to 2-3%<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, inflation is not playing along.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/economy\/price-indexes-and-inflation\/consumer-price-index-australia\/latest-release\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">currently sitting at 3.6%<\/a>. So close, but not quite there.<\/p>\n<h3>When are rates likely to fall?<\/h3>\n<p>The RBA expects it could be \u201csome time yet\u201d before inflation is happily nestled in that 2-3% range \u2013 the point at which long-awaited rate cuts may start to kick in.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not much of a date for home owners to work towards, though the big banks have a few time frames of their own.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westpac.com.au\/docs\/pdf\/aw\/economics-research\/WestpacWeekly.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Westpac<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nab.com.au\/business\/international-and-foreign-exchange\/financial-markets\/interest-rate-forecast\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NAB<\/a>\u00a0now both see rates heading south from December. And while\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.commbank.com.au\/content\/dam\/commbank-assets\/private-banking\/2024-06\/june-2024-market-outlook.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CommBank<\/a>\u00a0recently stated it expected rates to fall in November, there are signs it\u2019s losing hope for a 2024 rate cut.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGiven the challenging underlying inflation backdrop, as well as a labour market that is loosening more gradually than expected, the runway is shortening between now and November,\u201d CBA\u2019s head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird, said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe risk to our call is increasingly moving towards a later day for an easing cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.canstar.com.au\/home-loans\/interest-rate-forecast-australia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ANZ<\/a>\u00a0doesn\u2019t expect a rate cut before 2025. Ditto\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2024-06-18\/reserve-bank-keeps-interest-rates-at-4-35-per-cent-june-2024\/103991776\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Citi economists<\/a>\u00a0and a growing number of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.finder.com.au\/news\/rba-survey-17-june-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">other experts<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Long story short, even if we do get a December 2024 RBA rate cut, it\u2019s probably fair to say we won\u2019t see those cuts flow through to home loans until early next year.<\/p>\n<p>And a note of caution: the RBA mentioned in its June statement that it is \u201cnot ruling anything in or out\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a grim reminder that a rate cut is not guaranteed before another rate hike.<\/p>\n<p>This is why it\u2019s so important to take action of your own.<\/p>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_row\" data-structure=\"12\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-12 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_left bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_normal\" data-width=\"12\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_small bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_row_wrapper bt_bb_row_width_boxed_1200\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_row\" data-structure=\"2-4-4-2\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-2 col-sm-4 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_left bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_normal\" data-width=\"2\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-4 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_center bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_double bt_bb_highlight\" data-width=\"4\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_small bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_small bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_text\">\n<h6>Speak To An Expert<\/h6>\n<p>Schedule in a time to discuss your situation with a home loan specialist<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_normal bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_button bto btop bt_bb_icon_position_left bt_bb_color_scheme_14 bt_bb_style_filled bt_bb_width_inline bt_bb_shape_inherit bt_bb_size_normal bt_bb_align_inherit\" data-bt-override-class=\"{&quot;bt_bb_size_&quot;:{&quot;current_class&quot;:&quot;bt_bb_size_normal&quot;,&quot;xl&quot;:&quot;normal&quot;},&quot;bt_bb_align_&quot;:{&quot;current_class&quot;:&quot;bt_bb_align_inherit&quot;,&quot;xl&quot;:&quot;inherit&quot;}}\"><a class=\"bt_bb_link\" title=\"BOOK IN A CALL\" href=\"\/finance\/book-a-chat-with-tommy-biller\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class=\"bt_bb_button_text\">BOOK IN A CALL<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_normal bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-4 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_center bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_double bt_bb_highlight\" data-width=\"4\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-2 col-sm-4 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_center bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_double bt_bb_highlight\" data-width=\"2\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_small bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<h3>How to manage higher rates<\/h3>\n<p>Revisiting your household budget, identifying areas where you can cut back, and tucking spare cash into an offset account to save on loan interest are all steps worth considering.<\/p>\n<p>And don\u2019t forget, tax cuts for\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/treasury.gov.au\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-01\/tax-cuts-government-fact-sheet.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">13.6 million Australians<\/a>\u00a0kick in from 1 July.<\/p>\n<p>That could provide extra cash each pay day to help pay off your home loan.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s also a good idea to speak to us for a home loan review.<\/p>\n<p>We can let you know if you still have the loan that\u2019s right for your needs, or if you could save by switching \u2013 without having to wait for RBA rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p>Better still, rising national property values may mean you could be in a great position to refinance.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/quantiphy.com.au\/oldbackup\/finance\/book-a-chat-with-tommy-biller\/\">Book in a call<\/a> for more tips on managing your home loan repayments and possibly trimming your loan rate. It may mean the party pies can come out sooner!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Disclaimer:<\/strong>\u00a0The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Put the party pies on ice and postpone those rate-cut celebrations for a while yet. The much-touted rate cuts we\u2019ve been waiting for may not arrive until 2025. Here\u2019s why rates could be staying higher for longer, and how to take action yourself. June saw the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keep the cash rate&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":16275,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rate cuts? 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