{"id":16455,"date":"2024-11-14T16:13:33","date_gmt":"2024-11-14T04:43:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/quantiphy.com.au\/oldbackup\/?p=16455"},"modified":"2024-11-14T16:13:33","modified_gmt":"2024-11-14T04:43:33","slug":"can-we-expect-the-rba-to-cut-back-rates-this-summer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quantiphy.com.au\/oldbackup\/can-we-expect-the-rba-to-cut-back-rates-this-summer\/","title":{"rendered":"Can we expect the RBA to cut back rates this summer?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With just one RBA rate decision left for 2024, homeowners may be holding onto hopes of a summer cut. We look at when rates may start falling \u2013 and how you could possibly give yourself a rate cut before Christmas.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAre we there yet?\u201d It\u2019s the catch cry of kids on long summer road trips, and it could just as easily apply to homeowners waiting for much-anticipated rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p>The good news is that we appear to be getting closer \u2013 with many banks forecasting a possible RBA rate cut by the end of summer.<\/p>\n<h3>Rates on hold for November \u2026<\/h3>\n<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/media-releases\/2024\/mr-24-24.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">kept rates on hold in November<\/a>, despite\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/economy\/price-indexes-and-inflation\/consumer-price-index-australia\/latest-release\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">inflation falling to 2.8%<\/a>, which is well within the RBA\u2019s preferred 2-3% inflation range.<\/p>\n<p>So, what\u2019s holding up rate cuts? And why does it seem like the goalposts keep shifting?<\/p>\n<p>It turns out the RBA is concerned that part of the decline in inflation \u201creflects temporary cost of living relief\u201d (think the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/supportingaustralians.gov.au\/energy-bill\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">$300 power bill credit<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Basically, the RBA is worried that inflation remains too high and the outlook is still a little too uncertain to make any rate cuts right now.<\/p>\n<h3>Banks expect rates to fall in early 2025<\/h3>\n<p>What the RBA is aiming for, is \u201csustainably returning inflation to target\u201d (that\u2019s the 2-3% band). And it cautioned this could still be a way off.<\/p>\n<p>That makes the chances of a festive season rate cut at the RBA\u2019s next meeting (December 10) unlikely.<\/p>\n<p>For the record,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/speeches\/2024\/mc-gov-2024-11-05.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">RBA Governor Michele Bullock<\/a>\u00a0didn\u2019t give any hint on the direction of interest rates \u2013 either up or down.<\/p>\n<p>The banks, however, are a lot more open \u2013 and optimistic \u2013 about their interest rate expectations.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.commbankresearch.com.au\/apex\/ResearchArticleViewV2?id=a0NDo000000w20CMAQ&amp;un=jassmyn.goh@capitalbrief.com&amp;tk=YTBORG8wMDAwMDB3MjBDTUFROmphc3NteW4uZ29oQGNhcGl0YWxicmllZi5jb20=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Commonwealth Bank<\/a>, which had previously tipped a December rate cut, is now pencilling in the following meeting (February 18) for the first of what could be a string of rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westpaciq.com.au\/economics\/2024\/10\/forecasts-note-30-october-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Westpac,<\/a>\u00a0ANZ and AMP also all anticipate the RBA to cut the cash rate as early as February, while\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nab.com.au\/business\/international-and-foreign-exchange\/financial-markets\/interest-rate-forecast\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NAB<\/a>\u00a0is forecasting a rate cut as early as March 2025.<\/p>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_row\" data-structure=\"12\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-12 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_left bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_normal\" data-width=\"12\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_small bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_row_wrapper bt_bb_row_width_boxed_1200\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_row\" data-structure=\"2-4-4-2\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-2 col-sm-4 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_left bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_normal\" data-width=\"2\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-4 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_center bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_double bt_bb_highlight\" data-width=\"4\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_small bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_small bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_text\">\n<h6>Speak To An Expert<\/h6>\n<p>Schedule in a time to discuss your situation with a home loan specialist<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_normal bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_button bto btop bt_bb_icon_position_left bt_bb_color_scheme_14 bt_bb_style_filled bt_bb_width_inline bt_bb_shape_inherit bt_bb_size_normal bt_bb_align_inherit\" data-bt-override-class=\"{&quot;bt_bb_size_&quot;:{&quot;current_class&quot;:&quot;bt_bb_size_normal&quot;,&quot;xl&quot;:&quot;normal&quot;},&quot;bt_bb_align_&quot;:{&quot;current_class&quot;:&quot;bt_bb_align_inherit&quot;,&quot;xl&quot;:&quot;inherit&quot;}}\"><a class=\"bt_bb_link\" title=\"BOOK IN A CALL\" href=\"\/finance\/book-a-chat-with-tommy-biller\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class=\"bt_bb_button_text\">BOOK IN A CALL<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_normal bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-4 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_center bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_double bt_bb_highlight\" data-width=\"4\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column col-md-2 col-sm-4 col-ms-12 bt_bb_align_center bt_bb_vertical_align_top bt_bb_padding_double bt_bb_highlight\" data-width=\"2\">\n<div class=\"bt_bb_column_content\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bt_bb_separator bt_bb_bottom_spacing_small bt_bb_border_style_none\"><\/div>\n<h3>Why wait? Variable rates are already falling<\/h3>\n<p>While all this may make for a happy new year, February may seem a long way off \u2013 especially if you\u2019re sweating on a rate cut (and remember, there are no guarantees).<\/p>\n<p>But you may not have to wait around for the economy or the RBA to shift in your favour.<\/p>\n<p>It could be possible to give yourself a rate cut in time for Christmas.<\/p>\n<p>According to Mozo, growing expectations of future rate cuts have seen a number of lenders take the knife to their variable rates, with some\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.mozo.com.au\/roundup\/mozo-banking-roundup-202410-y6la8f9.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">cutting their variable rates below the 6% mark<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This may be helping to drive a 2.1% uptick in the volume of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/economy\/finance\/lending-indicators\/latest-release\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">home loans being refinanced<\/a>\u00a0over the past month.<\/p>\n<h3>Talk to us today<\/h3>\n<p>Waiting is never much fun. Refinancing now could help free up your household budget and contribute to a little extra Christmas cheer.<\/p>\n<p>If that sounds good to you, <a href=\"http:\/\/quantiphy.com.au\/oldbackup\/finance\/book-a-chat-with-tommy-biller\/\">book in a call<\/a> for a review of your home loan. We can run through your situation and let you know if there are ways to save on your current home loan interest rate.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Disclaimer:<\/strong>\u00a0The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With just one RBA rate decision left for 2024, homeowners may be holding onto hopes of a summer cut. We look at when rates may start falling \u2013 and how you could possibly give yourself a rate cut before Christmas. \u201cAre we there yet?\u201d It\u2019s the catch cry of kids on long summer road trips,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":16456,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Can we expect the RBA to cut back rates this summer? - Quantiphy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/finance-matters.info\/2024\/11\/06\/can-we-expect-the-rba-to-cut-back-rates-this-summer\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can we expect the RBA to cut back rates this summer? - Quantiphy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With just one RBA rate decision left for 2024, homeowners may be holding onto hopes of a summer cut. 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