In Sydney, everyone knows someone who moved to the coast or country during the pandemic. The sea-change/tree-change phenomenon had an incredible impact on the housing market, causing prices to soar in regional areas. But it also caused a population reshuffle across Australia, as tens of thousands left capital cities in search of more space and a slower pace.
Affordability played a major role, too, with families finding cheaper dwellings outside of metropolitan areas where the cost of living matched. With remote / flexible work arrangements allowing for such a move, people fled the city in unprecedented numbers between June 2020 and June 2022.
In Sydney, that number was 86,000, according to newly released regional population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). In Melbourne, close to 60,000 residents left the city over the same period.
In Parramatta, it wasn’t just the Eels that experienced a mass exodus. By mid 2022, the Greater Western Sydney suburb, dubbed ‘Sydney’s second CBD’ lost more residents to internal migration than anywhere else in the state, with more than 10,000 locals (5% of their resident population) fleeing the suburb. In December of 2020, the unit vacancy rate in Parramatta peaked at 5.3%, despite traditionally having the highest proportion of renters in Sydney. In March of 2022, the suburb hit its highest office vacancy rate in over 20 years at 13.4%.
Only two other suburbs in the country experienced such a significant loss of residents— Brimbank and Dandenong in Melbourne’s outer south-east. Both recorded an exodus of over 10,000 people.
From there, all other areas in the country that recorded large outflows of residents were suburbs of Sydney. Only about 1,600 less residents left Fairfield, in Sydney’s west, which lost 8,400 locals, or roughly 4.3% of its population. In Sydney’s inner city, which includes suburbs Pyrmont, Ultimo, and Haymarket, 7,600 residents moved out, while Canterbury’s population fell by 4.8% with a loss of 7,000 residents.
So, where did they all go? Limiting analysis to internal migration only, the recipients of Sydney’s pandemic population exodus were, unsurprisingly, lifestyle destinations offering a sea breeze and stress ease. Queensland topped the list, with close to 87,000 Australians moving to the sunshine state. Brisbane, the Gold Coast and coastal areas of south-east Queensland, up to Bundaberg, all recorded net population in-flows.
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On the outskirts of Canberra, Molonglo Valley saw its population swell by upwards of 10% between June 2020-2022, in large thanks to its spacious surrounds, nature reserves, and housing affordability. Sydney’s burgeoning north-west region also welcomed new neighbours, with Rouse Hill and Blacktown experiencing net internal migration flows greater than 10% of their populations. Coastal VIC saw internal migration of 7% (6,000 people), while the Margaret River in WA and Port Macquarie in NSW both embraced 2,000 and 3,200 new residents respectively.
Meanwhile, on the far north coast of NSW, Byron Bay’s population also ballooned. But rapid migration to the region during the pandemic only intensified the holiday hotspot’s already dire housing crisis. Byron Shire council have moved to impose a 60-day annual cap on short term rental stays in a bid to improve the crisis, hoping investors will return properties to the longer-term rental market. Currently, it’s estimated that at least 250,000 of Australia’s one million empty homes are listed as short-term rentals with platforms like Airbnb or Stayz.
