Where will you be in 2041? Seeing as a lot of us have yet to commit to our 2025 new year’s resolution, posing a question that far into the future might be a bit of an ask.
Alas, the latest population projections are in, and they show that over the next almost two decades, some Sydney suburbs are set to see huge population growth whilst others are likely to stall.
Released by the NSW government, the projections rely on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, local councils, and NSW and federal government agencies and are based on past trends in births, deaths, and interstate and overseas migration. The latter is what will drive NSW’s population over the next two decades, adding 1.7 million people to our population total by 2041. By that same year, Greater Sydney will have 6.7 million people, an increase of about 1.1M from now. So we really better start building those houses, Minns.
Still, a fertility rate well below the “replacement level” of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population is anticipated over the next two decades, at 1.63 births per woman in NSW.
With that said, a net total of 400,000 people are expected to move interstate due to the unaffordability of Sydney’s property market. Meanwhile, coastal towns like Ballina, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie and Tweed are predicted to attract young families and retirees from Greater Sydney.
With just over 2 million children expected to be born in NSW between 2021 (when the last census was compiled) and 2041 and some 1.2 million deaths, the NSW population will increase naturally by around 700,000 people.
And where will they live?
According to the projections, Central and western Sydney will be the fastest growing areas of NSW thanks to increased house supply and its desirability for young couples and families. In the 20 years from 2021, South-west Sydney suburb Camden is set to experience annual growth rates of 3.5%, while Blue Mountains neighbour Wollondilly will see a predicted 3.3% annual increase, followed by The Hills Shire at 2.7%.
But not all hills were created equal, however, with growth amongst the lowest in Hunters Hill, with the addition of just 333 people. The Austral-Greendale-Badgerys Creek area in Sydney’s south-west will add 54,000 people by 2041, more than any other suburbs. Nearby Cobbitty-Bringelly will add 41,000 to their resident tally, while the north-west region of Box Hill-Nelson will increase by about 42,000.
But growth in many harbourside suburbs will stall, with Balmain, Potts Point-Woolloomooloo and Mosman all set to remain largely unchanged. Over the bridge, the insular peninsula population of the Northern Beaches is projected to increase to 275,846, up from its 2021 Census count of 264,567.
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Meanwhile, tightly kept Eastern Suburbs areas like Waverley and Woollahra are projected to only see an increase of +0.5%, while nearby Randwick will see an increase of around 0.7%, or 19.5K people by 2041. Percentages increase as we begin to venture west – with the inner west region at a 1% increase, Burwood at 1.8%, and Liverpool at 2.2%. Finally, further south, the Sutherland Shire is projected to see an increase of 21,111 people, climbing to a population of 252,105 by 2041.